Miami 2023 First Round tips

Indian Wells was a very successful event for us, not only in terms of managing to produce tips for every round but also winning tips, as we ended the event up 11.22 units! We were unable to record a podcast in time for the First Round matches, but one will be released in the next few days discussing the Second Round matches.

We now cross over to the East Coast of the United States, with the Miami Masters. Like Indian Wells, we can expect slow conditions, and the fact that we have some results in Indian Wells to go off should help us this week. However, in my opinion, value is hard to find in the First Round here, hence a few set-betting picks. I expect the Second Round to have more opportunities, so make sure you listen to our next podcast when it is released!

Lehecka to beat Coria 2-0 4/9

It feels like I tip Jiri Lehecka every week at the moment, but he keeps impressing me every time I watch him, and more importantly keeps winning. He picked up a straight sets win over Rinderknech in Indian Wells before losing out to an in-form Rublev. He comes up against Federico Coria, a clay-courter who has had awful results on hard for the entirety of his career. He lost 6-1 6-2 last week to Schwartzman, who himself can’t buy a win on any surface. Coria is the defensive breed of clay-courter, meaning his game does not translate well to hard, similar to someone like Baez. He does not have a good serve, meaning Lehecka will get plenty of chances to break. He also doesn’t have big groundstrokes, meaning he will struggle to put the Czech on the back foot and will be constantly defending. He is a good defender and moves well, but this match is a case of will Lehecka be able to hit through him. Despite the conditions, due to Lehecka’s power behind serve and off both forehand and backhand, combined with his speed around the court, I only see a comfortable straight sets win for Lehecka.

Daniel to beat Rinderknech 4/9

Taro Daniel had a very impressive Indian Wells: having come through qualifying, he dismissed Carballes Baena in the First Round, then took out the out of form Berrettini in the Second Round, before giving Norrie a real scare in the Third Round, eventually losing in three sets. His display of patient aggression combined with big forehands and serves was very effective, and if he plays like that again here he should have another good week. Arthur Rinderknech has struggled this year, with just two wins at ATP level so far this season. In Indian Wells, he couldn’t capitalise on an early break in a straight sets First Round loss to the in-form Lehecka. The Frenchman has the weaponry to hit through anyone, but can never seem to bring it all together on slow surfaces like this. His results have always been far better on quicker surfaces and indoors. Daniel will be able to exploit his sub-par movement, and is serving better than Rinderknech at the moment. If he stays patient like he did against Norrie, he will be able to force errors from the often erratic Frenchman and get the win.

Nakashima to beat Otte 1/3

Brandon Nakashima came through a tough test against Isner last week in straight sets, and was then handed an awful Second Round draw in Medvedev. Oscar Otte also claimed a win over Djere in the First Round, before losing to Khachanov in the following round. I am not a fan of Otte in these conditions, he is much better suited to natural surfaces (clay or grass) due to his feel and spins. Slice is not that effective on a slow hard court, as it doesn’t stay low enough and can sit up to be attacked off. Nakashima is an excellent defender, and will make Otte hit at least a few quality shots to win each point. The German has struggled for form since picking up an injury at Wimbledon, and whilst he has a big serve, given how well Nakashima dealt with Isner’s serve last week, I see him coming through this one without too many problems.

Fucsovics to beat Cachin 2-0 8/11

The talented Marton Fucsovics has made a very promising start to the year. He won a Challenger, won two rounds at the Australian Open and took Sinner to five sets, and beat Wolf, de Minaur and Molcan last week in Indian Wells. Pedro Cachin has lost 7 of his last 8 matches on hard, but his only win was last week against Basilashvili. Cachin also struggled on his best surface (clay) during the golden swing, winning just one in five matches, and all his losses were in straight sets. Fucsovics should be coming into this with significantly more confidence, and his game is much better suited to the hard courts than Cachin’s. The Hungarian has a better serve and moves very well, and also has very nice feel and can add variety to throw Cachin off his rhythm. Given the form of these two players and the conditions, Fucsovics should pick up a routine win here.

Four-fold: 3.81/1


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